(Original article published on May 27, the author is Eric Pincus, a salary expert in the open stands. The content of the article does not represent the translator's opinion)
Every operation or failure in the NBA is accompanied by risks, and the team lineup is usually built through summer drafts, free agent markets and trades. While big deals like Doncic may change the team’s trajectory in the middle of the season, most important operations will still be completed this summer. Today's league has wage caps, luxury taxes and tycoon line restrictions, and basketball decisions are almost impossible to separate from financial problems. Each team has to make multiple choices to piece together a short-term and long-term roster. Here, Eric Pincus, a salary expert in the open-air stand, sorted out the most difficult salary problems that each team must face before the opening game of the regular season next season.
Related Rules
NBA's new TV broadcast agreement will come into effect in July this year. Therefore, the salary cap is expected to jump to 154.6 million, reaching the annual increase cap of the highest 10% increase, and all the remaining data (including data analyzed by each team) are based on the estimates of the salary cap value.
NBA implements a soft salary cap system, and almost all teams usually exceed this limit at the end of the season. But some teams will be controlled under the luxury tax threshold (187.9 million), because teams that do not exceed the tax can get the fines paid by the over-tax team (about 11.6 million this season). Other teams will independently control the first tyrant line (195.9 million) or the second tyrant line (207.8 million) to avoid triggering relevant restrictions. Usually, only the top championship team or the Suns will break through the second rich line. Teams under the
salary cap can freely use their salary space to do whatever they want (transactions, signings, etc.), and will then receive 8.8 million in space Middle Class Special (RMLE). Teams that exceed the salary cap but remain below the first tycoon line (regardless of paying taxes or not) can use the full middle class special case of 14.1 million and the biennium special case of 5.1 million (BAE), of which the biennium special case can only be used once every two years. Teams that exceed the first tyrant line but do not reach the second tyrant line can use the 5.7 million mini middle class special case (TMLE). Teams that break through the second rich line will lose all middle-class and biennial special cases, and can only sign basic-paying players, players who retain the right to sign and draft players.
Finally, each team may hold a trading exception (TPE) generated by this season's regular season. If an existing transaction exception is used, the hard salary cap of the first rich line will be triggered. The following forecasts do not consider possible transactions and do not count in any player who may be laid off and paid in salary installments.
Oklahoma City Thunder: Lineup Saturation Difficulty
Season's record: 68 wins and 14 losses, advance to the Finals
This year's draft picks: 15th, 24th, 44th picks
Total initial salary: 186.3 million (over-salary cap)
Available special cases: Mini Middle Class Special cases (not all available), Biennial Special cases
Total estimated minimum salary: 181.1 million (over-salary cap)
Total estimated maximum salary: 187.9 million (not exceeding the luxury tax line)
This youth army has dominated the Western Conference regular season for two consecutive years and advanced to the NBA Finals this year. Regardless of whether you can win the championship or not, this summer's top priority is to renew Jaylen Williams and Homegren with a big contract, otherwise it may destroy the carefully crafted chemistry. Under this basic premise (not a "hard decision"), the Thunder faces the problem of lineup saturation: existing contract players + two first-round picks + higher picks for second-round picks. Unless Ajay Mitchell and Jaylin Williams (team option) are abandoned or traded, the solution could be to replace this year's first-round pick with a future first-round pick.
Forecast: The Thunder will trade some (or all) draft picks this summer in exchange for multiple future first-round picks.
Houston Rockets: launch a superstar chase battle with all their strength
This season's record: 52 wins and 30 losses, 3 wins and 4 losses in the playoffs
This year's draft picks: 10th and 59th picks
Total initial salary: 152.5 million (over-salary cap)
Available special cases: Full middle class special cases
Total expected minimum salary: 141.1 million (13.2 million space)
The estimated maximum salary: 195.9 million (below the first tyrant line)
The Rockets have become a force that cannot be ignored in the West. Losing to the more experienced Warriors in the first round is by no means a setback, and the playoff experience gained by young players will bring huge improvements. But will the Rockets keep the original team next season? The team holds a large number of draft picks and young players, enough to pack up and trade the next superstar to apply for a deal. If Antetokounmpo makes a deal application with the Bucks, the Rockets are likely to become the number one suitor.
Predict: The Rockets will renew Van Vreet with a more favorable multi-year contract. While it may start the new season with its existing lineup, with strong trading chips, it is expected to seek big deals before next year's trading deadline.
Los Angeles Lakers: Finding Center Plan
Season's record: 50 wins and 32 losses, 1 win and 4 losses in the playoffs
This year's draft pick: 55th pick
Total initial salary: 191.6 million (renewal of James and others, which is the luxury tax line)
Available special case: Mini Middle-class special case
Total expected minimum salary: 123.3 million (31.3 million space)
Total expected maximum salary: 207.8 million (below the second rich line)
Initial luxury tax: 25.5 million
The Lakers don't need to worry about Doncic's issue, they will offer a four-year maximum salary renewal contract as soon as possible. The introduction of superstars is the most difficult part of building a team, but the Lakers always have a way to complete this operation.. Assuming James executes a 52.6 million player option or renews with a "1+1" contract, the Lakers must try to find a starting center. After Mark Williams's trade failed, they might pack rookie Knector (and perhaps with a future draft pick) for the best candidate.
Forecast: The Lakers will try to get players like Gafford from the Mavericks' trade, but given the tensions after the Doncic's trade, the Mavericks may not be willing to trade with the Lakers in the short term.
Denver Nuggets: Jokic needs help
Record this season: 50 wins and 32 losses, 7 wins and 7 losses in the playoffs
This year's draft pick: None
Total initial salary: 199.5 million (over the salary cap)
Available special case: Mini Middle class special case
Total expected minimum salary: 197.9 million (over the first tyrant line)
Total expected maximum salary: 207.8 million (below the second tyrant line)
Initial luxury tax: 13.5 million
It seems natural to look down on the Nuggets before the playoffs start. They parted ways with head coach Mike Malone and general manager Calvin Booth at the end of the regular season. If Aaron Gordon hadn't completed a buzzer-beating dunk in G4 in the first round, and the second round G1 hit a three-pointer to lose his home advantage, the team might have been eliminated long ago. If Gordon didn't get a hamstring injury in the G6 against the Thunder, will the Nuggets continue to move forward? With the end of the playoffs, the Nuggets have limited means of strengthening. They need to decide whether to renew Braun, and the only way to gain operational flexibility may be to trade Michael Porter Jr.'s big contract.
Forecast: Michael Porter Jr. will be traded to mid- and downstream teams that require veterans in the playoffs.
Los Angeles Clippers: Invest in Harden again?
Season record: 50 wins and 32 losses, 3 wins and 4 losses in the playoffs
This year's draft picks: 30th and 51st picks
Total initial salary: 175.6 million (renewal Harden, exceeding the salary cap)
Available special cases: Full middle class special case, biennial special case, 6.5 million trading special case (PJ-Tuck)
Total estimated minimum salary: 131.2 million (23.4 million space)
The estimated maximum salary: 207.8 million (below the second rich line)
The Clippers showed amazing resilience in the regular season, relying on Harden to take the lead during the absence of Leonard (knee injury). Before the playoffs, the Clippers ushered in the healthiest state in recent years. Unfortunately, Aaron Gordon's buzzer-beating win over the G4 was exterminated, resulting in a loss to the Nuggets in the first round and was eliminated. Considering Leonard's always-present health risks, how long can this lineup last? Leonard's contract with the Clippers will last until the 2026-27 season, which will directly affect the Clippers' renewal period of Harden, provided that the latter chooses to jump out of the 36.3 million player option to become a free agent. The Clippers may value salary flexibility in 2026 more, in which case Harden may need to execute the player option to play the existing contract.
Forecast: Harden will sign a new two-year contract after breaking out of the contract (although he will fight for three years), so that his contract expires at the same time as Leonard, retaining the maximum operating space for the Clippers in 2027.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Can they afford the existing lineup?
Season record: 49 wins and 33 losses, 9 wins and 6 losses in the playoffs
This year's draft picks: 17th and 31st picks
Total initial salary: 181 million (over-salary cap)
Available special case: Mini Middle class special case: 148.1 million (6.5 million space)
Estimated maximum salary: 207.8 million (below the second rich line)
Initial luxury tax: 7.6 million
Faced with the top salary pressure in the league, the Timberwolves traded Towns' contract to the Knicks before training camp to exchange for Randall, Divinzenzo and the Pistons' first round pick this year (17th pick). The win-win deal allowed both sides to reach the division finals, but the Timberwolves still faced huge financial pressure. Randall, who holds the option of 30.9 million players, shines in the playoffs, and he may jump out of his contract to seek a new contract, but the league's cap space may be tight or limiting its market conditions. Another option is to execute the option and sign a renewal contract, or wait until 2026 to become a free agent. The Timberwolves also need to solve the issue of Naz Reed's contract renewal (the latter is expected to abandon the 15 million player option to seek a long contract), while hoping to retain full free agent Alexander Walker.
Forecast: If the Timberwolves want to continue to maintain competitiveness, the salary of this lineup will expand rapidly.
Golden State Warriors: Is Kumingga a part of the team's future?
Season record: 48 wins and 34 losses, 5 wins and 7 losses in the playoffs
This year's draft pick: 41st pick
Total initial salary: 170.5 million (over-salary cap)
Available special cases: Full middle class special case, biennial special case, 8.8 million trading special case (Li Kaile)
Total estimated minimum salary: 181.5 million (over-salary cap)
Total estimated maximum salary: 207.8 million (below the second rich line)
The Warriors narrowly eliminated the Rockets in the first round, but Curry's hamstring injury caused them to lose to the Timberwolves in the Western Conference semi-finals. This team, which is built around Curry, Butler and Dream-Chasing Green, is currently only Moody's contract guaranteed until the 2027-28 season, which may imply that the Warriors will start rebuilding after the end of the Curry era. If management aims to seek financial flexibility in the 2027 offseason, should they pay a lot of money to renew the contract, which is not tactical adaptability to Butler and has never been reused by Coach Cole? The Warriors just controlled the explosive salary this season. Will they break through the rich line for Kumingga again?
Forecast: Kumingga becomes the most likely target for signing first and then trading in the league this summer.
Memphis Grizzlies: Renew Jaren Jackson Jr.
Season record: 48 wins and 34 losses, 0 wins and 4 losses in the playoffs
This year's draft picks: 48th and 56th picks
Total initial salary: 137.1 million (17.5 million space)
Available special cases: Space middle class special cases or full middle class special cases Example + Biennial Special, 7.7 million transaction special (Marcus Smart), 6.1 million transaction special (Zaire Williams)
Total estimated minimum salary: 137.1 million (17.5 million space)
Total estimated maximum salary: 187.9 million (not exceeding the luxury tax line)
Grizzlies seem not ready yet and are unwilling to trade star point guard Morant. Instead, they may use this summer’s salary space to lock in another core Jeran Jackson, to provide him with a maximum salary early renewal by renegotiating the contract. The challenge is how to retain restricted free agent Aldama, which may require trading players like Clark and Conchar while using cap space to re-sign Jaren Jackson Jr.
Forecast: The Grizzlies will raise Jaren Jackson Jr. by 13 million, bringing their starting salary for the 2026-27 season to 51 million.
Sacramento Kings: Keegan Murray's renewal problem
This season's record: 40 wins and 42 losses, 0 wins and 1 loss in the playoffs
This year's draft pick: 42nd pick
Total initial salary: 166.5 million (over-salary cap)
Available special cases: Full middle class special case, biennial special case, 16.8 million trading special case (Kevin Xuert), 5.9 million transaction exceptions (Chris Duarte)
Estimated minimum wage: 174.7 million (over-salary cap)
Estimated maximum wage: 187.9 million (not exceeding the luxury tax line)
The Kings parted ways with head coach Mike Brown and general manager Mont McNair, and Doug Christie and Scott Perry respectively took over. Since entering the playoffs in 2022-23, the Kings have never returned to the playoffs stage. Before the trade deadline, the Kings sent All-Star point guard Fox to the Spurs. Despite having multiple scorers, the team's defense is poor and lacks clear direction. The addition of DeRozan and LaVine squeezes Keegan Murray's offensive role, the young forward who is eligible for contract renewal may be the best bargaining chip, but considering the ages of DeRozan (about 36) and LaVine (30 but with a long history of injury), he is also an indispensable fresh blood for the King. Keegan Murray's expected salary may exceed the team's psychological price, which could lead him to become a restricted free agent in 2026.
Forecast: The two parties will reach a compromise on a four-year contract of 75 million.
Dallas Mavericks: Irving's future
This season's record: 39 wins and 43 losses, 1 win and 1 loss in the playoffs
This year's draft pick: 1st pick
Total initial salary: 209 million (breaking through the second rich line)
Available special case: None
Total expected minimum salary: 157.2 million (over the salary cap)
Total expected maximum salary: 207.8 million (below the second rich line)
Initial luxury tax: 34.1 million
The good luck of the Mavericks' draw of the No. 1 pick will shape their long-term future, but in the short term, they will have to wait at least January next year to welcome a healthy Irving. The star may not fully recover until the 2026-27 season after suffering an ACL torn in March this year. Irving can choose to jump out of the 44 million player option to become a full free agent, but the injury troubles combined with the lack of salary space for each team in the league may limit his market conditions. Another possibility is that he has reached a new three-year contract with the Mavericks, which not only guarantees his long-term income but also reduces the team's initial salary pressure next season. Another key question is how to fill Irving's organizational ability gap, after all, the Mavericks will lose their main point guard in the first few months of the new season.
Forecast: Irving and the Mavericks reach a three-year contract (starting salary of about 35 million yuan), making more room for operation this summer; at least one (or two) of PJ-Washington and Gafford will be traded.
Phoenix Suns: Where does Durant go?
Season record: 36 wins and 46 losses, Lotto area
This year's draft picks: 29th and 52nd picks
Total initial salary: 223.8 million (breaking through the second rich line)
Available special case: None
Total expected minimum salary: 212.5 million (still surpass the second rich line)
Initial luxury tax: 205.2 million
The Suns continue the tradition of changing head coaches every year. The talent-spreading team has never been able to realize its potential, and Durant, who is about to turn 37, has entered the final year of his contract. The total salary of the Sun is too high, which makes it impossible to strengthen, and there are very few trading assets left. The league generally expects Durant to be traded, which is likely to be completed this summer, and will not exceed the trading deadline at the latest.
Forecast: Durant will leave the team before the start of the new season.
Portland Trail Blazers: Backcourt Choice
This season's record: 36 wins and 46 losses, Lotto area
This year's draft pick: 11th pick
Total initial salary: 176.5 million (over-salary cap)
Available special cases: Full middle class special case, biennial special case, 6.9 million trading special case (Malcolm Bro Gerden)
The estimated minimum salary is 160.9 million (9.2 million space)
The estimated maximum salary is 187.9 million (not exceeding the luxury tax line)
The Trail Blazers usher in a turning point this season. Young players such as Avdia, Kamala, Scudt Henderson and Klingen have shown vitality, but are Anthony Simmons and Shetton Sharp belong to the future blueprint? This question needs to be answered urgently, both of them have entered the last year of their contract and are eligible for renewal. Will renewal of Simmons limit Henderson's development? How much should the Trail Blazers make the playoffs? Can you free up salary space and acquire young assets by trading veterans such as Ayton and Grant?
Predict: Trail Blazers will tentatively sell Simmons and Sharp, but will not rush to reach an unfavorable deal. Keeping the two (even as future trading chips) is still an option.
San Antonio Spurs: Also chasing superstars with all their strength this season: 34 wins and 48 losses, Lotto area
This year's draft picks: 2nd, 14th, 38th picks
Total initial salary: 160.6 million (over-salary cap)
Available special cases: Full middle class special cases, biennial special cases
Total estimated minimum salary: 158.9 million (over-salary cap)
Total estimated maximum salary: 187.9 million (not exceeding the luxury tax line)
Spurs were originally expected to enter the play-offs until the rising star Wenban Yama was reimbursed in February due to deep vein thrombosis. If he returns healthy next season, the combination with Fox will be extremely threatening. In the long run, the Spurs can use draft assets (including this year's second pick) and young players such as Wassel, Kelden Johnson, and Sohan to exchange for the third star, and perhaps they have found the answer in Castle. In any case, the Spurs have enough assets to chase superstars without giving out the best rookie of the year.
Predict: The Spurs will try to trade Antetokounmpo’s level stars, but will Antetokounmpo agree to join? Will you insist on going to a team with a larger market?
New Orleans Pelicans: The original team will play for another year?
Season record: 21 wins and 61 losses, Lotto area
This year's draft pick: 7th pick
Total initial salary: 182.8 million (over-salary cap)
Available special cases: Full middle class special case, biennium special case, 13 million trading special case (Brandon Ingram), 9.9 million trading special case (Jonas Valanciunas)
Total minimum salary: 138.5 million (16.2 million space)
The estimated maximum salary: 187.9 million (not exceeding the luxury tax line)
The Pelicans performed poorly this season, but injuries are an important factor. Dejunta Murray suffered hand injuries and a torn Achilles tendon (will miss at least half of the schedule next season), Zion was once again troubled by health problems, and new stars Murphy (shoulder) and Ingram (ankle) were also absent for a long time. Before the trade deadline, the Pelicans sent Ingram to the Raptors, mainly due to financial considerations, because the Pelicans have always had a tradition of avoiding paying luxury taxes. The Pelicans had hoped to get a higher pick, but the lottery draw was not satisfactory. Should they use the No. 7 pick to strengthen their existing lineup, or do they need to make greater changes in the offseason?
Forecast: The Pelicans will explore Zion's trade possibility, but the new season will still be centered on him; McCollum may be sent away as a big contract expired.
Utah Jazz: Keep the inside or completely rebuild?
Season record: 17 wins and 65 losses, Lotto area
This year's draft picks: 5th, 21st, 43rd, 53rd picks
Total initial salary: 165.1 million (over-salary cap)
Available special cases: Full middle class special case, biennial special case
Total expected minimum salary: 148.2 million (6.5 million space)
The estimated maximum salary: 187.9 million (not exceeding the luxury tax line)
The Jazz missed the No. 1 pick in the lottery draw and missed the cornerstone of team building like Flag, and may face another bleak season. They will continue their strategies in recent years and focus on cultivating young players. Given Markanen's age (about 28) and Kessler's contract renewal qualification, the Jazz need to make a choice against the two insiders this summer.
Forecast: The Jazz will sell Markkanen before the start of the new season, suspend Kessler's contract renewal, and make a decision after he becomes a restricted free agent in 2026.
Second>>The most troublesome salary problem for the eastern teams this summer: Are the Pacers finally going to pay taxes? The Nets are so rich
Original text: Eric Pincus
Compiled by: Li Taibai