According to the analysis of the All Market Network, Italy's opponents in the first round of the world preliminaries play-offs may be Wales, Romania, Sweden or Moldova.
Italy has almost guaranteed its second place in the World Qualifying Group. With Norway's 5-0 victory over Israel, Italy has almost lost its hope of competing for first place in the group. At this moment, considering that the goal difference is too large, as long as Norway defeats Estonia next, Italy's hope of competing for first place in the group will be shattered.
In this way, if Italy wants to enter the World Cup, it needs to pass the play-offs, and it needs to win 2 consecutive single-elimination games to advance to the World Cup. In the previous two play-offs, Italy lost to Sweden and North Macedonia respectively. This time, Italy has four possible opponents in the semifinals.
How will the play-offs proceed?
This stage will be held in March next year. A total of 16 teams will participate, including the 12 second-placed teams in the group, and the 4 UEFA Nations League group leaders selected from the teams that failed to enter the top two in each group based on the overall ranking of the 2024/2025 UEFA Nations League.
The 16 teams will be divided into four groups, with four teams in each group playing the semi-finals and finals in a single elimination round (the semi-finals and finals will be held on March 26 and 31, 2026, respectively, local time). The winners of the four group finals will advance to the World Cup.
Italy is confirmed to be a seeded team
With the FIFA world rankings, Italy has ensured to become one of the top 4 seeded teams. According to the current group format, it is very likely to be ranked as a seeded team together with Turkey, Ukraine and Poland (Belgium), and will not meet in the play-offs.
But if Belgium ranks only 2nd in the group with Wales and North Macedonia, Belgium will replace Poland as the seeded team, and Poland will drop to the 2nd pot. The top seed in each group will face the team in Pot 4 at home in a single-elimination semi-final.
Who will enter the 4th gear? The following are the four teams that are currently likely to face Italy in the semi-finals
Entering the fourth pot are those teams that failed to finish second in the group in the world preliminaries, but entered the play-offs through the UEFA Nations League rankings. According to the current group stage rankings, the fourth pot includes: Wales, Romania, Sweden and Moldova (these four teams are ranked high enough in the UEFA Nations League, but they have not yet reached the second place in the World Qualifying Group, and they may still change in the future).
The winner of the semi-finals will face the winner from the matchup between Pots 2 and 3. Currently, the teams that may appear in these two tiers are: Poland (if Belgium advances directly to the World Cup, it will become a seeded team), Czech Republic, Hungary, Scotland, Albania, Northern Ireland, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Kosovo.
But as mentioned above, these rankings are temporary, because the World Cup preliminaries group stage has not yet ended, and the rankings may still change.
For example, if North Macedonia fails to prevent Belgium from finishing first in Group J, then North Macedonia will become the second-tier team, and Poland may become the seeded team. There are too many variables. There are still three rounds of World Cup preliminaries left, and everything may change by then.
The 8 play-off semi-finals, 4 finals, and the venue of all games will be determined by drawing after the group stage of the world preliminaries.
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